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☆ Instant view: Cooler October US CPI raises confidence that Fed hikes done
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.1% on the month and increasing 3.3% on a year-on-year basis. The rally was due to rising investor belief that the Federal Reserve will now be less likely to hike interest rates at future meetings. LINDSAY ROSNER, HEAD OF MULTI-SECTOR FIXED INCOME INVESTING, GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK“Today's Core CPI print was below expectations. "The Fed will not want to step back from its hawkish stance yet; the annual core rate at 4% is still some way away from target. THOMAS HAYES, CHAIRMAN AT HEDGE FUND GREAT HILL CAPITAL, NEW YORK"We're happy to see both headline and core CPI come in lower than expected.

Persons: Hannah Beier, ” BEN JEFFERY, GREG BASSUK, ” “, ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, we’ll, ” CHRIS ZACCARELLI, LINDSAY ROSNER, GOLDMAN, ” MATTHEW MISKIN, JOHN, “, ” STUART COLE, Kashkari, Powell, PETER ANDERSEN, ANDERSEN, it's, THOMAS HAYES, OLIVER PURSCHE, It’s, ” Organizations: Reading, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Markets, BMO, Reserve, CPI, ALLIANCE, Fed, Global Finance, Thomson Locations: Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, U.S, WALTHAM, MA, WISCONSIN, CHARLOTTE, GOLDMAN SACHS, JOHN HANCOCK, BOSTON, LONDON

☆ Auction sizes set to increase at US Treasury refunding
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Treasury earlier this month posted a $228 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier. "They have to grow coupon auction sizes - not just at the August refunding, not just at the November refunding, but also at the February refunding as well, because they are ultimately trying to balance this supply picture between bills vs coupons and this growing financing need," Swiber said. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) recommends that bills make up 15-20% of the total marketable debt. The Treasury will release its quarterly borrowing requirement Monday afternoon, and its refunding news comes Wednesday at 0830 ET/1230 GMT. The Treasury surveyed dealers about their opinion on how some details of the program should work ahead of the August refunding.

Persons: Steven Zeng, Meghan Swiber, Swiber, Ben Jeffery, Karen Brettell, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S . Treasury Department, Treasury, COVID, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Reaction: June US jobs growth cools, but wages won't comfort Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. "Today's numbers confirm the job market is still strong... and this report gives the green light to the Fed to raise rates. "If anything, it probably confirms this idea that the Fed has had that they are making progress in the right direction." "It's not like this is a sudden vast improvement in the labor market." The hours worked numbers are rising slower than the payrolls numbers.

Persons: Nonfarm, payrolls, CANDICE, GOLDMAN, BEN JEFFERY, “, PETER CARDILLO, we're, STUART COLE, JASON PRIDE, MICHAEL BROWN, ”, ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE Organizations: YORK, Labor Department, Reuters, Treasury, BMO, NFP, Fed, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: GOLDMAN SACHS, PHILADELPHIA, WISCONSIN

☆ A major inflation report and fallout from Silicon Valley Bank hang over markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

February's consumer inflation report should be a big driver for markets in the week ahead, as investors watch for continued fallout from the shutdown of SVB Financial Group's Silicon Valley Bank. The consumer price index report on Tuesday is the last major inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve's March 21 and 22 meeting. Silicon Valley Bank's troubles overshadowed nearly everything else in markets Thursday and Friday, as investors sought safety in the bond market and sold bank stocks. Those odds had been as high as 70% before the Silicon Valley Bank news began to hit the market. Now inflation data is being watched carefully since a very hot number could mean the Fed will become more aggressive.

☆ Asia markets to rise while U.S. jobs report hints at room for more hikes, Adani saga continues
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

For now, it's a quarter point [hike]. In the futures market, traders were betting on an end rate, or terminal rate near 5%. The market is pricing in a 25 basis point hike for March. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. But Jeffery said the futures market is now pricing in more of a chance for a quarter point hike in May as well.

☆ How the Fed managed to spark a stock market rally while sticking to tough talk on interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell talked tough Wednesday, promising more rate hikes in the unrelenting battle against inflation, but he also let slip a few comments dovish enough to send the stock market sharply higher. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday afternoon by a quarter point, as expected, and also kept a comment in its statement that it anticipates ongoing rate hikes. .SPX 1D line stocks Powell spoke afterward at a press conference, warning the market of more rate hikes and a tough stance on inflation. But traders seemed to cherry pick comments that had a dovish tilt to them, and the stock market reversed course and rallied hard. In its statement, the Fed swapped out the word "pace" for "extent" of future rate hikes when describing what it would take into account in in deciding on further increases.

☆ Surprise inflation report may signal smaller Fed rate hikes in future — if trend continues
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve may be more comfortable with a series of small rate hikes next year if inflation continues to cool, economists say. Stocks surged and bond yields fell sharply early Tuesday as investors bet November's better-than-expected consumer inflation report could mean fewer Federal Reserve rate hikes. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. As bond yields fell, the futures market reflected lower expectations for Fed rate hikes Tuesday morning. She expects the central bank to raise rates by a half percentage point Wednesday and to end rate hikes at a terminal rate of 5.1% next spring.

☆ This may be the start of a traditional post-midterms rally as signs of cooling inflation emerge
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

October's cooler-than-expected consumer inflation report triggered a massive surge in stocks that could herald the traditional midterm election year fourth-quarter rally. To be sure, they also caution that there's risk the rally could be derailed by another hot inflation report or other factors, like the crypto meltdown. Thursday's CPI report breaks a string of inflation surprising to the upside. Bitcoin also rallied after the CPI report, gaining more than 6% to a level of $17,554 on Coin Metrics in mid-morning trading. Strategists warn the rally could be temporary, and Emanuel called it a "bear market rally."

☆ Treasury yields could be peaking soon and that could ease some pressure on stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield has been setting new 14-year highs, but strategists expect it to ease from those levels in a matter of weeks, relieving pressure on the stock market. The 2-year Treasury yield, for instance, rose to 4.54% — its highest since 2007. Bond strategists and technical analysts say there is some scope for the 10-year yield to reverse course. Higher yields pressure stocks for a couple of reasons. "If we continue to see strong hiring and a low unemployment rate that will keep rates higher ... the softer the landing the higher rates will be," said Jeffery.

☆ Fed meeting ahead will decide whether stocks can stabilize or fall back to bear market lows
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-16 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

FedEx rattled the market after it withdrew its full year earnings guidance Thursday, warning about global softness in its delivery business. After the CPI, markets shifted to price in an even more aggressive Fed rate hiking path. Fed ahead In the week ahead, there are just a few data releases, but they will provide an important window into how the housing market has been coping with the Fed's rate hiking cycle. "Good economic data has been bad for the market, but we haven't seen bad economic data be good for markets. After the CPI release, the futures market for fed funds priced a big jump higher in the terminal rate, or end point where the Fed stops hiking.

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